With each year that passes, the gluten-free industry grows.
It’s estimated to be worth $7.7bn ($6.6bn), and is growing with a 10% CAGR. Market analysts Grand View Research predict that it will reach $13.6bn in 2030.
In spite of this, food and beverage companies continue to undervalue their potential, especially at Christmas. Things are beginning to change.
The sales of gluten-free mince pies, Christmas puddings, and yulelogs have soared. (manyakotic/Image: Getty/manyakotic)
Gluten-free products are in high demand during the holiday season
The Christmas season is upon us. You can also find out more about the following: The most significant time for sales of food and beverages. The consumer stockpiles everything from milk, eggs, and bread to cheeses, chocolates, and wine. Then there are all the foods that have a Christmas theme.
Manvi Verma is a senior analyst with Mordor Intelligence. She says that during the holiday season, mince pies and other festive items such as yulelogs, Christmas puddings and speciality biscuits are in high demand. As the holiday season approaches, shoppers not only spend more but buy more often.
The trend can be seen in developed markets such as Europe and North America where consumers who are health conscious and have a lifestyle that is centered around their choices choose gluten-free foods for holidays.
Verma says that, given this spike in seasonal sales, the gluten-free festive category is likely to grow faster than the overall gluten-free segment.
The Christmas season is a great opportunity for gluten-free manufacturers to increase their sales.
While gluten-free NPD and innovation has lagged, the industry’s interest in this area is starting to increase. Retail trends from 2024-25 show that the major UK and US retail chains, such as Sainsbury’s and Waitrose are expanding their gluten-free holiday selections. Gluten-free items are being included in the festive display, instead of separate shelves.
Meanwhile, gluten-free artisanal bakeries launch more and more festive collections with items such as luxury cakes, mini tarts, etc. The move reflects a growing trend of premiumisation within the industry.
Verma explains that this shift is a result of a double recognition: heightened awareness among consumers and the realization that gluten-free holiday items are just as indulgent and high-quality as traditional products.
The brands that are able to adapt to the shift will gain market share. Those who are not acclimatized to it may be left out of this premium growth segment.
The most popular time for sales of food and beverages is Christmas. The consumer stocks up on all kinds of things, including the essentials like milk, bread and eggs to the more luxurious items like wines, chocolates, and cheeses. Then there are also the foods that have a festive theme. (Image: Getty/ZAKmac)
Festive Opportunities for Gluten-Free People
Food and beverage companies have a lot to gain from the rapid growth of the gluten-free market, which is now worth around $180 billion, based on a 4.2% CAGR. Verma says that the gluten-free market is backed by three distinct, but overlapping consumer groups. Each group has its own unique characteristics and marketing strategy.
Consumer groups for gluten-free products
- This group is clinically required: Coeliacs, who must avoid gluten. This group, while relatively small in size, is a constant demand for gluten-free products at festive occasions.
- Group for lifestyle, health, and healthy eating These consumers may not have medical issues, but they choose gluten-free products to help them achieve their health and wellness objectives. This segment may have a decline in consumption after Christmas, but it offers significant margin and scale potential for festive premium products
- This group is based on the following: Holiday shoppers, who are not gluten free themselves, purchase gluten-free products for their guests’ dietary needs or preferences. Gluten-free items are now a staple of holiday shopping, as inclusive gifts and communal eating gain popularity.
What are the needs of gluten-free customers?
The holiday sales are dominated by gluten-free desserts and baked goods. The traditional Christmas treats, such as mince pies and yulelogs, are now available in gluten-free varieties that do not compromise taste or texture. Sales of sweets, snacks and other gluten-free products are increasing fast outside the bakery aisle.
The premium market for ready-to cook food is showing signs of progress. While the savoury dish industry still struggles to achieve the perfect texture and taste, it has made great strides in the past few years.
Verma says that retailers are now offering gluten-free gravies and mains made with pastry. The Christmas dinner table has evolved, and it demonstrates the advances in gluten-free formulas.
Now, retailers are introducing a variety of gluten-free gravies and main courses, including pastry. (Image: Nicholas Robinson)
Gluten-free market growth slowed by challenges
Gluten-free product development poses significant challenges to food and beverage producers.
- Cost: The price of ingredients like gluten-free blends of flour, starches and binders is high. The cost per unit is high without a large scale of production.
- Formulierung und sensory Qualität: Research and development is required to replicate the texture, lift and crispness of wheat products. It is especially important for holiday bakery items and desserts like mince pies, yulelogs and other festive treats, when indulgence is key.
- Complexity of the supply chain and certification: To produce gluten-free products for coeliacs, strict cross-contact control, dedicated production line or thorough cleaning are required, as well as third-party certification.
- Regulatory/health-policy shifts: External factors are important beyond recipes and new product launches. Alterations in the prescription policy of gluten-free foods by government bodies, for example, can affect household finances and perceptions about gluten-free access. As gluten-free foods gain popularity, regulations and labels are scrutinized more closely, particularly in relation to allergens and nutrition claims.
Verma says that manufacturers who are interested in the gluten-free market for festive products should invest early on. This could be through ingredient sourcing or co-packaging, as well as establishing dedicated lines. They should also focus on sensory evaluation of the consumer, and align their efforts to festive timelines.
(Image: Getty/Sam Edwards) The holiday sales are dominated by gluten-free desserts and baked goods. (Image: Getty/Sam Edwards)
Gluten-free Ghost of Christmas Future
The festive season is a great time for brands to reconsider their strategy as gluten-free becomes more mainstream.
Manufacturers must invest in innovation and quality to meet the rising expectations of consumers and changing retail strategies.
Acting now and prioritising operational readiness, strategic positioning, and sensory excellence will not only capture seasonal sales but also long-term loyalties in a growing market.