The Middle East’s desalination plants are becoming increasingly vulnerable.
Large desalination facilities that provide water for the area could be threatened by conflict and extreme weather.
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The conflict in Iran is intensifying, and a vital resource that provides water to much of the area has come under attack: desalination.
Early in March, Iran’s Foreign Minister accused the US of attacking an desalination facility on Qeshm Island within the Strait of Hormuz. This attack disrupted the supply of water to 30 villages. The US has denied any responsibility. Both Bahrain and Kuwait reported the damage in recent weeks and blamed Iran. Iran denied any responsibility.
Donald Trump, in late March threatened to destroy “all desalinization plant” in Iran should the Strait of Hormuz not be reopened. He has escalated the threats that he made against Iran since then and warned of his plans to target other civilian infrastructure such as power plants, bridges, etc.
Countries in the Middle East, particularly the Gulf states, rely on the technology to turn salt water into fresh water for farming, industry, and–crucially–drinking. The increasing attacks and threats highlight the importance of the industry to the Middle East.
This is made more dangerous by the rising temperatures and extreme climates caused by climate change.
Liz Saccoccia is a Water Security Associate at the World Resources Institute. She says that 83% of Middle East currently faces extreme water stress. She adds that future projections indicate this will increase to around 100% by 2050. “This trend is continuing, and not improving.”
This article examines the desalination technologies in the Middle East, and the possible consequences of war on the infrastructure in this region.
The vital resource
Since the beginning of the 20th century, desalination has been used to provide drinking water in the Middle East.
It became more widespread during the 1960s and 70s.
Desalination plant types are divided into two main categories. Thermoelectric plants use heat energy to evaporate the water and leave behind salts, impurities, etc. Condensing the vapor into fresh water is possible. Reverse osmosis is an alternative membrane-based system that pushes the water through tiny membrane pores that are so small, salt cannot get through.
The first desalination plant in the Middle East used fossil fuels for evaporating water and leaving behind the salt. The process is extremely energy intensive, so over time processes that use filters have become the preferred choice.
In recent years, membrane technologies have accounted for the majority of new desalination capacities.
The last large thermal plant in the Gulf was completed in 2018. Reverse osmosis systems still use fossil fuels but are more efficient.
Membrane technologies added 15 million cubic metres of capacity per day since then–enough water for millions.
The capacity has increased rapidly in the last few years. Between 2006 and 2024, Middle Eastern countries collectively spent more than $50 billion on building and upgrading desalination plants, with nearly as much money being spent to operate them.
Around 5,000 desalination units are currently operational in the Middle East.
Looking ahead, the growth continues. From 2024 to 2028 the daily capacity of the plant is projected to increase from 29 to 41 millions cubic meters.
Uneven vulnerabilities
Some countries depend more on this technology than others. Iran uses desalination to produce 3% of the municipal water it needs. Although the country can access some groundwater, it is also limited by extreme drought and agriculture.
Desalination is a major source of water for other nations, especially those in the Gulf region (Bahrain and Qatar), as well as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. All six countries, except the UAE, get over half of their water through desalination. For Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait, the number is even higher.
David Michel is a senior analyst in the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ global program on food and water safety.
He says that the Gulf states are more susceptible to attack their desalination facilities than Iran.
Michel explains that there are thousands of facilities for desalination in the area, and the system would not collapse even if some were shut down. In recent years, there has been a shift towards larger and more centralized plants.
According to the International Energy Agency, data shows that desalination plants are 10 times bigger than they were 15 years ago. Today’s largest desalination plant can provide enough water for thousands of people with 1 million cubic metres of daily production. Michel says that taking one of these huge facilities off-line could have an impact on the entire system.
Threats escalate
The desalination process is linear. This means that there are many steps, and that equipment works in a sequence. If one component fails in this chain, the entire system can be shut down. Michel adds that attacks on the water supply, transport networks and electricity can disrupt the entire system.
During the Gulf War of 1991, Iraqi troops pumped crude oil into the Gulf, polluting the water, and closing down Kuwait’s desalination plant.
These facilities are generally close to the other target areas in this conflict. About three quarters of the facilities are located near power plants because desalination requires a lot of energy. Trump has threatened Iran’s power plants repeatedly. Iran has responded by saying that it will strike back with “more devastating and widespread” strikes if its civilian targets are targeted.
War is not the only threat to these plants.
Even if war is the immediate one, it’s still not the only risk. Global warming may intensify cyclones, which could cause equipment damage or shutdowns.
Also, water pollution can cause closures. Accidental or deliberate oil spills can cause havoc, such as the Gulf War. In 2009, an algal bloom in Oman or the United Arab Emirates closed down desalination facilities for several weeks. Algae fouled membranes, preventing the desalination plants to receive water from the Gulf of Oman and Persian Gulf.
In the future, desalination plants may have to become more resistant to attacks as they continue to gain in importance.
Desalination plants could be run at least partly on solar energy, thus reducing the dependence on oil. Construction is currently underway on the Hassyan seawater-desalination plant, which would be the biggest reverse osmosis facility in the world that uses renewable energy.
To increase their resilience, countries can also build more strategic storage of water to meet the demand. Qatar, for instance, recently announced new policies aimed at improving management and storage desalinated waters. The countries could work together on shared policies and infrastructure that would help to strengthen water supplies throughout the region.
As critical infrastructure such as the water supply is under increasing threat, preparedness, resilience and cooperation are key.
Ginger Matchett is an Assistant Director at the Atlantic Council. She says that the longer this conflict continues, the greater the likelihood of significant damage to water infrastructure.
What worries me, is that some lessons learned after the war will reveal how water could be used more strategically.